How to convert odds in probabilities?
It is extremely important for a beginner gambler to have the ability to convert odds in probabilities or vice versa. This makes it easier to know the fair odds and the odds offered by the houses, having the ability to distinguish whether a bet has value or not. Recognizing the fair odds of a given event requires doing basic math calculations, but these calculations involve only the previous statistics. Therefore, there may be other more subjective conditions, such as for example:
– The state of the lawn;
– The choice of players for the match;
– Meteorology of the match;
– Referee of the match;
– Other external factors;
These statistics are purely subjective and more complicated to detail, however they do help to create a starting point for the prediction and, like that, with the support of the Betting Academy, we can determine the conversion of an odd into probabilities with the following example:
Inter vs Leverkusen
From the Betting Academy website, it’s possible to read the complete prognostic for this game which is available on the following link.
In this link you can find the odds the UK bookmakers offer, all the statistical information of the game and, most important of all, the suggestion of the bet for the game.
But for this specific game let’s analyze the market “Over 2.5” – odd 1.57 in a certain bookmaker.
Since it’s a match in a neutral environment and playoffs, it is important to consider the statistics referring to the home factor and the away factor, based on the statistics of the last 10 games of both teams.
Objective: Calculation of “Over 2.5” odd:
In the last 10 games of Inter, the market “over 2.5” existed in 6 games and not in 4.
Therefore its probability is (6/10) x 100 = 60%.
In the case of Leverkusen, there was the “over 2.5” market in 5 games and not in 5.
Therefore its probability is (5/10) x 100% = 50%.
Covering the probabilities of both teams:
Average of the probabilities of Over 2.5 = 60+50/2 = 55%
So the fair odd for the Over 2.5 market is 1/0.55 = 1.8
Thanks to the fair odd formula and the ability to convert odds into probabilities and vice versa, we can see that the odd offered by the bookmaker for this match is not worth it, since it’s 1.57, so this odd is incredibly below the fair odd for this match, 1.8. So it doesn’t make any sense to bet on this odd, since the odds margin is huge. Therefore, this odd from the bookmaker has a negative expected value.
The Betting Academy is a platform created to help new bettors, where they can find a sports betting course and a forum where they can ask questions and receive tips from more experienced bettors.
Besides Betting Academy, you can explore our articles area where we often publish articles on the subject.