In which Odds should I bet on?

Bookmakers offer odds between 1.01 and 1000, if we analyze in a different perspective, we can differentiate three situations:

• Low odds;
• High odds;
• Bets with value;

Low Odds

Low odds usually go from 1.01 until 1.60, which means, in terms of probabilities go from 99% until 62.5%. Low odds are a very controversial subject because, in the beginning, new bettors are not going to be able to understand the weight of the responsibility of an odd, however, in some situations it can have value.

High Odds

High odds usually go from 2.00 until 1000, which are translated to probabilities from 50% until 0,01%. High odds are very enticing because the profits are very higher than the stake placed.

Let’s imagine the following scenario:

A game where Team A plays against Team B, where Team A presents an odd of 1.10 and Team B an odd of 21. For each £100 that we bet on Team A, we’re going to receive £10 if the bet wins. In case of Team B, that pays an odd of 21, on the same bet we did on Team A, it can profit £2100 in case Team B wins.

The question here is: It’s more worthy to bet on Team A or on Team b?

Team A has clear advantages on winning the game considering its favoritism, in this case, with around 90% probability of winning. Team B has a 4,7% probability of winning. The responsibility weight on betting on an odd of 1.10 for Team A is way higher than the responsibility weight of betting on an odd of 21 for Team B.

In conclusion: Mathematically, there is no specific advantage in high odds or odds too low because in long term, both will have the tendency to create the same results.

Bets with value

It’s a concept to have in mind since it’s going to be very useful in the future of sports betting. It’s used as a base to gain money consistently. And why? Let’s imagine the following example:

The fair odd of Real Madrid victory is 1.50 (around 60% of winning probability), if the bookmaker offers an odd greater than 1.50 for the Real Madrid victory, this case will be a bet with value. In the previous example, Team A odd of 1.10 was a bet with no value at all.

Conclusion: The situation of a bet with value represented by the bookmaker will reflect a probability lower than the real probability of that result to happen.